How will local high school football and basketball recruits be impacted by the House settlement?

When Dereck Lively II was entering his senior year at Westtown School, he had a choice. He could play for Overtime Elite and get paid or stay at the West Chester boarding school.

Seth Berger, Westtown’s coach, told Lively, the nation’s top recruit in the class of 2022, that he would support whatever decision he made. What he needed to consider, though, was how his choice would affect his development as he pursued an NBA career.

“Whatever amount of money Overtime Elite would pay him was not nearly as significant if he could not turn into the best player he could be in the NBA,” Berger said. “He would make hundreds of millions more if he developed better in his senior year of high school, so he ultimately decided to stay at Westtown.”

Lively, now with the Dallas Mavericks, was drafted 12th overall in 2023 after playing one season at Duke. It’s rare to be a one-and-done lottery pick like Lively, but athletes have to weigh their options when deciding on college programs.

“There’s not one right answer for any kid,” Berger said. “But if your goal is to have a professional career, you should always be choosing a program that’s going to help you be the best player.”

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Following the approval of the House v. NCAA settlement, colleges are allowed up to $20.5 million a year in direct revenue sharing with their athletes. The settlement also will pay a total of $2.8 billion in backdated NIL payments to athletes who competed between 2016 and 2024.

But as the landscape shifts toward a professional model, high school football and basketball recruits who are looking to extend their athletic careers will be impacted differently. Here’s how:

The biggest impact high schoolers will face since the settlement is roster limits, which will replace sport-specific scholarship limits.

Football programs will be limited to 105 players, while men’s and women’s basketball programs will be capped at 15 players. Before the settlement, about 120 members made up football rosters, with 85 scholarship players. Previously men’s basketball team had about 17 players with 13 scholarships offered.

The settlement effectively made athletes free agents each year, and schools likely will turn to the transfer portal first to fill their roster needs.

“You’re comparing a 17- or 18-year-old, maybe not quite as developed young man, to a 21-year-old man, who has a little bit of experience, in the portal,” said David Gueriera, Malvern Prep’s football coach. “They’re making decisions really based off of that.”

» READ MORE: Big 5 schools are (mostly) buying in on new NCAA revenue-sharing rules. Here’s what they’re saying.

A possible downside to turning to the portal, Gueriera said, is that a transfer will cost more money than an incoming freshman. But opportunities for high school recruits at big-name schools could start to dwindle as walking on and partial scholarships won’t be an option anymore.

“The top 10 percenters, they’re going to be fine. They are the kids who have a lot of potential,” Gueriera said. “But it’s those kids who, prior to the limits, maybe had an opportunity to get on as a walk-on. Those kids are now kind of going down a level and going to FCS.”

There likely will be an influx of talented high schoolers in mid-major conferences or Divisions II and III, which could improve the competition at those levels.

Berger believes that could create more of a European style of play in basketball, with different divisions. Players will move up and down every year based on how they perform.

“I could be a low-major Division I kid, and I might start in Division II or JUCO, potentially Division III, and play well and move up,” Berger said. “Then if I play really well at D-II, I can move up to the MAC, then I get to move up to the [Atlantic 10].”

That doesn’t necessarily mean high school athletics will develop a similar model to college, where schools can pay their athletes to play for them. Most high school basketball and football programs don’t generate enough cash flow to do that, but it’s not out of the question.

There has been a trickle-down effect, however, with the concept of the transfer portal and name, image, and likeness deals.

For years, local athletes have opted to play for private schools — whether for academic opportunities or better competition. Now, more recruits are deciding to switch schools in the area or transfer to another powerhouse in a different state.

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This stems from prospects, especially nationally ranked recruits, wanting to get the most out of their development and be recognized by college coaches.

Money will play a role in their decision, and Gueriera says recruits will need to make their college commitments sooner. Football recruits find out how much they’re going to get paid when they take their official visits to schools. Usually, they’ll look to make their commitments shortly after.

“I have multiple players who have already committed because this is all sped up,” he said. “We want to make sure that we commit so we have that opportunity before it gets taken away, either by somebody overcommitting or a transfer portal guy that may come in and take that spot. So we’ve adjusted with the times and sped up our decision-making process.”

It comes down to a recruit’s priorities, Berger said.

“If your goal is to extend your career as long as you can and play into your 30s after college, choose a college program that will help you develop and improve as a player in your first year, as opposed to one that’s going to pay you the most or has the sexiest name on the front,” he said. “Every answer is different for every kid. Some kids should go to the highest level because they need the challenge and they need to see what that level is all about. And some kids should be going to a lower level because they want to get the ball as much as they can, and they will be unhappy at a higher level.

“The overriding thing here is that everyone now accepts that kids can get paid. That‘s the most important thing. There’s no sideways glances, and they should get paid. Good for the NCAA to recognize that.”